Why is the content of this map important?
The ambient temperature is essential in determining the climate condition in which we are living. Changes in temperature affects directly the human well being as well as the living conditions of animals and plants. In addition, the infrastructure and the industry rely on ambient temperatures within certain limits. If the projected temperature changes drastically, all of the above-mentioned entities have to adapt.
Which sectors are affected by this result?
Many sectors are directly or indirectly affected by mean temperature changes. On the one hand, rising temperatures can lead to better conditions for certain vectors and vermins, which are detrimental for humans, plants and animals. The possible increase of vermins can lead to reduced crop yields in agricultural production. On the other hand, increased mean temperatures can lead to better growing conditions for certain plants and therefore to a prolonged growing season in certain regions. In this regard, implications for water resources have to be considered. Also the tourism sector is affected, e.g., by changes in snow cover for skiing. Increasing temperatures can also influence the energy sector via reduced possibilities for cooling of power plants in summer.
What is shown on the maps?
The maps show the temperature changes for Europe between the 1971-2000 reference period and the +2°C global warming period at the global scale. The annual average warming is not uniform across Europe. Northern and eastern regions warm more than the South and West. The simulated increase in temperature is more than +3.5°C in parts of northern Scandinavia. During summer, the maximum warming occurs in the South along the Mediterranean and over high altitudes as well as in the northern parts of Scandinavia. During winter, the warming is strongest in northern areas and it largely due to substantial increase in the daily minimum temperatures. There is 100% agreement among the models that the temperatures over Europe are increasing.
Details and further information:
The detailed regional climate modelling information is summarized in the IMPACT2C Policy Brief No. 1.
To investigate this, the ensemble mean of the five mandatory climate simulations is used. Hence, the ensemble consists of 5 simulations in total.
Stefan SobolowskiUni Research AS (UniRes), Norway