Rainfall in Bangladesh

Key messages:

  • Under a +2°C and a +3°C global warming, an increase of precipitation is projected for the whole country and more pronounced in the southeastern part
  • Model agreement on these changes is high

Why is the content of this map important?

The Ganges and Bramaputhra rivers form both the wealth and major threat of the country.  Any changes in their discharge could greatly impact many sectors and parts of society.

Which sectors are affected by this result?

Precipitation increases will concern directly the hydrology sector, and indirectly the agriculture and health sectors.

What is shown on the maps?

An initial precipitation increase maximum (of 100 mm/year) extends from the southern foot of the Himalayas to the western part of the Ganges delta. A second maximum is centered in Assam, which covers a smaller area, with higher intensity intense (250 mm/year), and better agreement among the models than the first maximum. In the present climate, annual precipitation over the domain ranges from 500 mm (Tibet) to 2500 mm (Bangladesh).

Details and further information:

The table below shows that during the monsoon peak (July-August) rainfall increases by almost 20%.

Monthly accumulated precipitation (mm) over land

  J F M A M J J A S O N D
1971-2000 15 23 27 41 80 180 268 237 169 60 15 9
+2°C 17 25 29 43 85 200 311 281 193 66 13 11


Additional information:

The climate change indicators have been calculated from the CNRM/CNRM-ARPEGE52, ECEARTH/SMHI-RCA, NORESM/BCCR-WRF331 simulations.



Michel Déqué

Meteo France (MeteoF), France