Why is the content of this map important?
Rapeseed is the top oilseed produced in the EU, with 21 million tonnes produced in 2013, which is a 9% increase from the previous year. This map combines estimated changes in rapeseed production with an estimate of the agricultural sector to cope with predicted changing drought conditions, and highlights areas that may be more vulnerable than others.
Which sectors are affected by this result?
Vulnerability of specific crops is most relevant for the agricultural sector, although crop production and extreme events lowering that output can have an impact on consumer prices at regional and world markets.
What is shown on the maps?
Results shown are a combination of estimates of the difference between current and future rapeseed yields and the adaptive capacity (AC) of the agricultural sector to cope with increasing drought hazards producing an index of vulnerability. The vulnerability index was limited to grid cells in which over 5% are currently used for crop production. Lower scores mean little to no future vulnerability, with moderate scores indicating increasing impacts with which farmers can cope. High values indicate possible areas which will be unable to cope with these future changes.
Based on this approach, the majority of areas producing rapeseed face little to no vulnerability, with the exception of a small region of northern Germany.
Details and further information:
This estimate of vulnerability is the combination of biophysical impacts with adaptive capacity. Areas with low impacts and high adaptive capacity receive lower vulnerability scores, increasing as impacts increase and/or AC decreases. AC is estimated via a four capitals indicator approach, which uses three indicators of physical, social, financial, natural, and human capitals. These indicators are then aggregated to form a single AC index, as can be seen in the Atlas map on assessing agricultural AC.
To identify vulnerability, adaptive capacity projected for different regions was combined with potential impacts estimated by the EPIC model. EPIC was driven by the five mandatory climate simulations. Hence, the ensemble consists of 5 simulations in total.
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Keith WilligesInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)