Warming in East Africa

Key messages:

  • Under a +2°C and a +3°C global warming, the projected warming for the continental parts is above the global one
  • Projected warming is rather uniform over the region
  • There is a high consensus among the analyzed simulations

Why is the content of this map important?

A +2° global warming has important consequences in this region, in particular in semi-arid areas, because temperature controls evaporation, and therefore soil water budget. As the increase in precipitation is not expected to be large in East Africa, there is a risk of water shortage.

Which sectors are affected by this result?

A temperature increase impacts many sectors as hydrology, agriculture or energy. Warmer temperatures have also a negative impact on health.

What is shown on the maps?

The map of the +2°C scenario shows a warming between 1°C and 2°C, with more than 2°C along the Red Sea. The map of the +3°C shows an acceleration of the warming, with more than 3°C over large parts of the domain. The models are fully consistent about the sign and rather consistent about the amplitude of the temperature change.

Details and further information:

The table below shows the average temperature (°C, land only) during the annual cycle.

month J F M A M J J A S O N D
1971-2000 20 21 22 23 24 23 23 23 23 22 20 20
+2°C 21 23 24 25 26 25 25 25 25 24 22 21


Additional information:

The climate change indicators have been calculated from the CNRM/CNRM-ARPEGE52, CNRM/ENEA-REGCM, ECEARTH/CSC-REMO, ECEARTH/SMHI-RCA4, ECEARTH/DMI-HIRHAM, MPI-ES/CSC-REMO simulations.


Michel Déqué

Meteo France (MeteoF), France