Why is the content of this map important?
The Weather-Value at Risk (Weather-VaR 95%) is used as a measure of the risk of loss on a specific economic sector. Here, Weather-VaR (95%) represents the climate change-induced loss to the summer tourism overnight stays during June to August, which will not be exceeded with a probability of 95%.
Which sectors are affected by this result?
The presented results indicate the Weather-VaR (95%) for June to August: the core of summer tourism in Europe, affecting directly the tourism sector. Readers should also consider the respective results on May to October that cover the entire summer tourism season for Europe.
What is shown on the maps?
The Weather-VaR (95%) in summer tourism is expected to increase in Mediterranean countries under +2°C of global warming, especially in Italy, Spain and Portugal. Minor changes are projected for Central European countries while northern Europe is expected to experience a decrease in the Weather-VaR (95%). The changes were estimated to be even more pronounced under +3°C of global warming.
Details and further information:
Weather-VaR (95%) represents the weather-induced loss which will not be exceeded with a probability of 95% within the considered time horizon. For example, a Weather-VaR (95%) value of 2% tells us that we are 95% certain that the weather related loss to overnight stays will not exceed 2%.
To investigate this, the ensemble of the five mandatory climate simulations is used as input to calculate the weather value at risk of losing overnight stays under a +2°C global warming. Hence, the ensemble consists of 5 simulations in total.
For the +3°C global warming case the analysis is based on the standard set of four climate simulations.
Manolis GrillakisTechnical University of Crete (TUC), Greece