Why is the content of this map important?
A +2° global warming has important consequences in this region, in particular in semi-arid areas, because temperature controls evaporation, and therefore soil water budget. As the increase in precipitation is not expected to be large in East Africa, there is a risk of water shortage.
Which sectors are affected by this result?
A temperature increase impacts many sectors as hydrology, agriculture or energy. Warmer temperatures have also a negative impact on health.
What is shown on the maps?
The map of the +2°C scenario shows a warming between 1°C and 2°C, with more than 2°C along the Red Sea. The map of the +3°C shows an acceleration of the warming, with more than 3°C over large parts of the domain. The models are fully consistent about the sign and rather consistent about the amplitude of the temperature change.
Details and further information:
The table below shows the average temperature (°C, land only) during the annual cycle.
The climate change indicators have been calculated from the CNRM/CNRM-ARPEGE52, CNRM/ENEA-REGCM, ECEARTH/CSC-REMO, ECEARTH/SMHI-RCA4, ECEARTH/DMI-HIRHAM, MPI-ES/CSC-REMO simulations.
Michel DéquéMeteo France (MeteoF), France