Winter Tourism Demand

Key messages:

  • Overall, under a +2°C global warming up to 10 million overnight stays are at risk
  • Austria and Italy are most affected
  • +3°C global warming increases the risk of losses in overnight stays for additional 1.7 million nights

Why is the content of this map important?

The tourism sector plays an important role in many economies all over the world. Tourism is one of the most weather-sensitive sectors. The maps allow a comparison of the impacts of +2°C global warming on winter tourism demand in Europe.

Which sectors are affected by this result?

Tourism covers several industries, mainly accommodation and food services. Transportation, entertainment and recreation, and retail trade are also going to be affected with the tourism sector.

What is shown on the maps?

The maps show the accumulated weather-induced risk of losses in winter overnight stays (Weather-Value at Risk 95%) in Europe’s ski-tourism-related regions. This result is shown for both the reference period and the +2°C period (2036-2065, RCP4.5). The special map shows the difference in Weather-Value at Risk (95%) between +2°C and +3°C global warming.

Details and further information:

Weather-VaR (95%) represents the weather-induced loss which will not be exceeded with a probability of 95% within the considered time horizon, i.e. the weather-induced loss that has to be expected once in 20 winter seasons.

Additional information:

The results for the reference period are based on current overnight stays (avg. 2005-2010) and the climate of the reference period 1971-2000. For the +2°C global warming period (2036-2065) the ensemble of the five mandatory climate simulations is used and socioeconomic changes are considered based on the average of  SSP1 to SSP3. Hence, the ensemble consists of 5 simulations in total.

The results in the special map are based on the standard set of four simulations for the RCP8.5 scenario and SSP3.  


Andrea Damm

Joanneum Research Forschungsgesellschaft mbH (JR), Austria