Why is the content of this map important?
When talking about extreme events, thinking beyond biophysical impacts is important. The vulnerability of people or regions to extreme events is affected by adaptive capacity; areas high in forestry sector AC are more likely to cope with and adapt to future changes in extremes.
Which sectors are affected by this result?
Adaptive capacity has important implications for the vulnerability of the forestry sector to future climate change. Areas high in forestry sector AC are more likely to cope with future changes and not be as negatively affected, compared to those less prepared. See also Topics Agricultural Adaptive Capacity and Ecosystem Services Adaptive Capacity.
What is shown on the maps?
The map shows an index created by aggregating indicators of capacity in terms of human, physical, natural, and financial capitals, with the maximum index value of five and minimum of zero. Each separate capital consists of three indicators of the forestry sector adaptive capacity (AC). Combining our estimates of AC with impacts, we can estimate how the forestry sector is able to cope with future changes.
We have portrayed results in line with previous assessments for the global and EU level, aggregating indicators of the 4 capitals to form an index ranging between 0 and 4, for which we employed equal weighting for each capital.
Details and further information:
Below is a simple overview of the indicators used to define each capital value for forestry sector adaptive capacity. Data were obtained from the EU’s Eurostat, the FAO, and the World Bank. Data limitations require the use of current adaptive capacity as a proxy for future AC, as no statistically significant model to project AC to the future could be determined.
Breakdown of forestry sector AC index into component indicators, organized by capital stock type
The four capitals approach has been used to assess adaptive capacity. It is a combination of human, physical, natural, and financial capitals. The output of the EPIC model was analyzed. EPIC was driven by the five mandatory climate simulations. Hence, the ensemble consists of 5 simulations in total.
Keith WilligesInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)